国际原油价格冲击对我国经济的影响——基于结构VAR模型的经验分析

The Impact of International Crude Oil Price Shocks on China′s Economy:An Empirical Analysis based on SVAR Model

本文基于2003年1月～2009年2月的月度数据,采用SVAR模型分析了国际原油价格波动对我国经济所产生的影响。结果表明,国际油价波动对我国经济具有重要影响,并且具有很强的持续性。国际原油价格冲击对我国产出增长不仅具有直接的消极影响,而且还通过加大了国内通胀压力、促使紧缩性货币政策的实施和人民币汇率波动间接影响产出的增长,但这种间接效应相对较低。

In recent years,the fluctuation of international crude oil prices is beyond the level of expectations. With the continuous development of economy,the demand for crude oil of China is enhanced,and the effect of international crude oil price shocks on domestic economy has also become more and more important. Based on the monthly data from January 2003 to February 2009,this paper analyzed the impact of fluctuations in international crude oil prices on the domestic economy by an SVAR model. The results show that there exists an important lagged impact of the international oil price fluctuations on domestic economy. It is not only affect China′s output growth in a direct way,but also indirectly affect the growth of output through the increased pressure on domestic inflation and then triggering a tightening of monetary policy implementation,and making fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate .But the latter effect is relatively lower.