OFDI影响国内资本形成的地区差异及其门槛效应

Regional Difference of OFDI′s Impact on Domestic Capital Formation and Its Threshold Effect

为了探究我国OFDI的持续快速增长是否会对国际金融危机背景下的扩大内需政策产生挤出效应,本文首先利用我国2003～2007年的相关面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明,我国OFDI对国内资本形成具有十分显著的挤入效应,并且其挤入系数在我国东、中、西部地区之间存在明显差异。在此基础上的门槛面板分析则进一步发现,这种地区差异主要是受到OFDI及其出口规模的影响。只有OFDI跨越单一门槛值时,才能对国内资本形成产生挤入效应;而出口则存在3个门槛,出口额跨越的门槛值越高,OFDI对国内资本形成的挤入效应越显著。

As for the question whether the rapidly growing OFDI will crowds out the policy of boosting domestic demand during international financial crisis,this paper firstly carries out empirical analysis by applying the panel data of China from 2003 to 2007. The result shows that OFDI has significant crowd-in effect on domestic capital formation,and the coefficients vary a lot among the East,Middle and West regions in China. The threshold panel data approach provides further conclusion that the regional differences mainly result from the size of OFDI and export. Only when OFDI gets across the single threshold,crowd-in effect can occur. However,there exists three thresholds for export,the higher the threshold of export,the more significant the crowd-in effect will be.