中国服务进出口贸易与经济增长的协整关系

Cointegration Analysis of Services Trade and Economic Growth in China

本文从服务贸易出口、服务贸易进口与GDP作为一个系统中相互决定和相互依存的内生变量角度构造动态模型,以此分析相互联系的变量间的互动关系和内在影响机制,并分析随机扰动对变量系统的动态冲击。本文分析和论证了:(1)服务贸易进口和出口均与中国经济总产出正相关,但服务进口与总产出的相关系数大于服务贸易出口与总产出的相关系数;(2)短期内,服务出口对经济增长具有促进作用,但长期作用不明显,在未来较长时间内,服务贸易进口与国内经济增长仍将保持较强相关性;(3)从基于VAR模型的格兰杰因果关系检验结果分析,实际服务贸易出口和服务贸易进口不是实际GDP增长的Granger原因,实际GDP是引起实际服务贸易进口和出口的Granger原因,实际进口是引起实际出口增长的Granger原因,但出口不是引起进口的Granger原因。

This study constructs a dynamic model for three endogenous variables including exports, imports of services and GDP in order to analyze the dependant relationship and determinant factors of this model as well as the dynamic effects of stochastic random on the model system. Results show that there exists positive relationship between service trade and GDP, but the regression coefficient between the GDP and import is much larger than that between export and GDP. Although services export produce positive influences on GDP growth in short time, it might have not obvious effects on GDP in long run. Last, Granger causality test between these variables have been given to investigate the causal relationship for services trade and output in China.