福建省中长期水资源供需平衡主导因素分析

Analysis of Dominant Factors on Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance in Fujian Province in the Future

基于水旱灾、水污染实质上是水资源系统供需平衡失调的认识,以福建省为例,依据其水资源复合系统概况分析,从水资源系统供需(Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance,WRSDB)流程角度,建立水资源供需平衡评价指标体系,应用SPSS 11.5 for Windows,采用因子分析法分析各年份WRSDB的主导因素。结果表明,从1997年到2015年,闽西山区所受各类WRSDB影响因素的制约作用呈减弱趋势,但影响闽东沿海区WRSDB的各类因素中,人均水资源丰度、供水能力的重要性降低,而用水效率的重要性增强,渐居主导作用。另外,根据第1主成分表征的共性主导因素,用水效率在WRSDB中的作用也增强,成为福建省中长期WRSDB能力的主导因素,是WRSDB对策制定的主要依据。

Considering that water pollution, flood and drought are essentially outside phenomena of systemic maladjustment of Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance （WRSDB） system, based on the survey of water resources system in Fujian Province, an indicator system is established to signify factors on WRSDB according to WRSDB flow order. Then, dominant factors on WRSDB are analyzed by a factor analysis by SPSS 11.5 for Windows in the province from 1997 to 2015. Results show that influence of both per capita water resources abundance and water supply ability have decreased upon WRSDB in the east of the province, influence of water use efficiency has increased and become dominant factors gradually among all factors in the east, although influence of all factors is weakening on WRSDB in the west from 1997 to 2015. According to the common dominant factor information signified by the first component, water use efficiency has also increased influence on WRSDB in the whole province, will be the dominant factors on WRSDB in the province, and should be the main gist of WRSDB countermeasure constitution.