房地产企业战略投资期权博弈分析框架研究

Researches on Analytical Framwork of Strategic Investment Option Game Based on Real Estate Enterprises

基于房地产企业核心竞争力的战略投资主要表现为获得新市场而进行的大型项目开发经营,这种战略投资具有不可逆性、不确定性、灵活性和非排他性的特点,因此在进行战略投资决策时,传统的现金流决策方法难以解决项目不确定性、灵活性和非排他性所产生的价值。本文引入期权博弈理论进行战略投资项目的决策评价,建立了房地产企业战略投资期权博弈分析总框架,并从项目的外部和内部环境因素分析、战略投资总价值计算及最优投资时机确定和进行战略投资、实现战略目标三个方面详细阐述了战略投资期权博弈分析步骤。

Strategic investment based on real estate enterprises＇ core competence is mainly acting as mega-projects development and operation for acquiring the emerging market. For this kind of strategic investment, it has such characteristics as non-reversibility, uncertainty and non-exclusiveness. For this reason, the traditional method of using cash flows for decision making cannot deal with the values added by the characteristics listed above. Hence this paper introduces the method of option game to better evaluate the strategic investment projects. It describes in detail the procedures of doing analysis of strategic investment option game from three aspects, namely, the analysis of inner and outside project environment, the calculation of investment value and the selection of optimal investing time.