基于误差分析的需求不确定性研究

The Research on Demand Uncertainty Based on Error Analysis

以某家用电器公司的洗衣机的销售为例,选择其下游的实际零售量作为自变量,公司的需求量为因变量,采用广义差分方法拟合简单计量经济模型,将其需求不确定性中因衔接因素的影响部分显现了出来。在对模型的模拟误差进行分析的基础上,得出公司的衔接不确定性主要来源于需求预测不准和短缺博弈、数量折扣策略及促销时间和方式等方面。并指出可以采用改善预测、历史数据分配法、滚动的总量折扣策略和淡季促销等措施来降低需求不确定性。

In this paper a simple econometric model is built by using the generalized difference methods. Taking the example of a household electric appliance company＇s sales of washing machines,the demand of the company as a dependent variable and the actual retail sales of it＇s downstream as an independent variable are chose. The impact of the uncertainty of interface can be shown from the model. Then based on the error analysis of the model, we can conclude that the company＇s uncertainty of interface comes mainly from inaccurate demand forecasting, shortage gaming,discount strategy,promotion time and strategy and so on. So more accurate forecasting, ＂turn-and-earn＂,volume-based quantity discounts over rolling horizon and promotion during low time periods can be used to reduce the demand uncertainty.