甘肃省全社会固定资产投资的ARIMA模型预测

Using ARIMA Model to Forecast the Total Fixed Asset Investment in Gansu Province

固定资产投资的增长不仅会直接拉动经济的增长,而且还会增加对原材料、生产设备、劳动力等的需求,从而促进与投资活动相关行业的发展。对《甘肃统计年鉴》提供的1982—2007年甘肃省全社会固定资产投资总额的数据进行分析,建立了ARIMA(1,1,1)模型,并检验了该模型的预测效果,为甘肃省固定资产投资的分析提供可靠的依据。

The growth of the total fixed asset investment will not only promote economic growth directly, but also increase its needs, like raw materials, production equipment, labor, and so on. The result is that it promotes the development of these fields related with investment activities. This paper analysis the data comes from CEI net. This data is about the total fixed asset investment in Gansu Province from 1982 to 2007. We establish the model of ARIMA （ 1,1,1 ） and test the model＇s prediction. This model can provide reliable proof for the total fixed asset investment in Gansu Province.