改进UGM(1,1)模型在雷达故障预测中的应用

Application of the Improved Unequal Interval Grey Model to Radar Fault Forecast

针对传统不等时距灰色模型(UGM(1,1))在背景值构造上的缺陷,从优化背景值构造和提高模型的预测精度及适用性出发,采用背景值加权和新陈代谢模型相结合的方式,提出了一种改进不等时距灰色模型新陈代谢UGM(1,1,w)模型,用雷达故障预测实例进行了仿真及模型比较分析.结果表明,基于新陈代谢UGM(1,1,w)模型的雷达故障预测方法在预测精度和适用性上均优于传统UGM(1,1)模型.

Aimed at the drawbacks of constructing the background value for the traditional unequal interval grey model （UGM（1,1））, an improved unequal interval grey model ,or metabolism UGM（1, 1, w） was proposed by combining the background value weight with the metabolism model, started from optimizing the construction of background value and enhancing the forecast accuracy of the model as well as its applicability. And the simulation and comparative analysis of the models were given by an example of forecasting the radar fault in practice. The results show that the radar fault forecast using UGM（1, 1, w ） model has a higher accuracy and better applicability than those using the traditional UGM（1,1） model.