房地产市场销售量影响因素的实证分析——以上海市为例

The Influencing Factors on the Quantity of Real Estate Market Sales in the Method of Empirical Analysis

通过建立多元线性回归模型找出房地产市场销售量的变化规律。用上海市的相关数据进行了实证分析,发现对房地产市场销售量影响较大的因素主要是房贷利率、国民经济状况和政策利好程度;房价预期主要取决于政策利好程度;房地产市场价格指数、真实需求与居民实际收入水平对销售量的影响力相对较小。以上这些因素都不是单独作用的,而是交互式体现其影响力。无论是宏观调控还是投资、消费决策,都要将其综合考虑。

First of all, this paper analysis the factors which influence the quantity Then, quantitative analysis the main influencing factors. Through establishing the model, to find out the rules of the quantity＇s changing. Using the data of Shanghai of real estate market sales. multivariate linear regression conducts an empirical analy- sis of the real estate market, find out the influence on quantity of sales is mainly mortgage rates, national eco- nomic situation and policy benefit;the expected price mainly depends on the policy benefit. While the index of real estate market price, the real requirement and the level of residents＂ actual income etc, in spite of having only relatively small influence, but also obtain several important conclusions.