GM(1,1)模型在大气质量预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) model in atmospheric quality forecast

为了研究阜新市大气污染物的变化规律,应用GM(1,1)模型及阜新市1996-2000年总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)的监测数据,对阜新市的大气污染物的变化情况进行预测,并对预测结果进行检验。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型建模简单,精度高,对于大气环境质量的预测效果比较好。研究结论可为控制该地区的大气环境质量提供依据。

In order to research the air pollutant variation law of Fuxin city, based on total suspended particulates（TSP） monitoring data from 1996 to 2000, the GM （1,1） forecasting models for air pollutant variance is established successfully, with an accurate checkup thereafter. The result shows that the modelling of forecasting model is simple and with high precision level, which is suitable for predicting atmospheric environment quality and receives best predictive validity.The research conclusions can provide data for controlling the atmosphere quality in this area.