中国FDI的混沌吸引子检测及非线性动力学预测——基于logistic模型

The Test for Chaotic Attractor in China′s FDI Inflow and Its Nonlinear Dynamic Prediction: Based on Logistic Models

应用logistic模型对我国1980-2005年FDI序列进行检测，并没有发现FDI混沌吸引子存在．预测结果显示，我国FDI已趋于平稳增长，“十一五”期间FDI年均增长为3．41％，年均FDI流入量为654亿美元，预计累计吸引FDI在2978．291～3562．052亿美元之间．这为我国“十一五”利用外资规划中的目标提供了有力的支持．同时，我国FDI具有拥塞现象，且所产生的阻力日益加剧，FDI需外部激励才能持续增长．为实现“十一五”利用FDI目标，一方面我国要努力调节FDI的地区分布结构和产业分布，扩大FDI环境容量，更重要的是要保持经济持续增长，改善投资环境，提高服务质，增加外商对华直接投资的信心．

Some Foreign scholars said that China is FDI Chaotic Attractor. In this paper, We utilized the logistic model to test FDI sequence from 1980 to 2005 of our country, and we did not find the existence of FDI chaotic attractor. Prediction shows that China＇s FDI growth has stabilized. In the ＂llth Five-Year Plan＂ period, China will attract FDI amount to 297.8- 356.2 billion U.S. dollars with average annual growth rate 3.41%, this is the strong support for we realizing the ＂llth Five-Year＂ plan of using foreign investment. At the same time, FDI in China has the phenomenon of congestion, in order to maintain the growth, FDI needs outside stimulating factor. In order to realize the ＂llth Five-Year Plan＂ of using FDI, We should regulate the structure of FDI geographical distribution and industrial distribution, and the more important is to maintain the economic growth, improve the investment environment and service quality, these will increase the confidence of multinational corporation.