中美商品贸易的碳排放转移研究

Research on the Carbon Emission Transfer by Sino-US Merchandise Trade

中美两国均为温室气体排放大国,且双边贸易额巨大。由于两国在基础设施、技术、能源综合效率和资源禀赋上存在差异,使得中美商品贸易中存在碳排放转移。论文采用投入产出法的思想,结合经济、能源与贸易三系统,建立了基于国际商品贸易的碳排放转移模型,并分别测算了1997年与2002年中美商品贸易中各相应部门的碳排放转移量。研究表明:①1997年与2002年,基于中美商品贸易的中国部门载碳量分别达到4010.13×104t碳与5056.21×104t碳,占中国相应部门载碳总量的6.61%与8.33%;而美国部门载碳量仅为290.65×104t碳与335.61×104t碳,仅占美国部门载碳总量的0.53%与0.66%;②1997年与2002年,中美商品贸易的碳转移总量达3719.75×104t碳与4719.60×104t碳,化学工业、金属冶炼及其压延加工业是主要的碳转移部门;③1997年与2002年,通过国际商品贸易,美国分别有相当于其相应部门碳排放总量的6.77%与9.32%的碳被泄露到了中国,中国为美国的碳减排做出了很大的潜在贡献,美国等发达国家应该为中国等发展中国家提供切实有效的气候与环境友好型技术援助。

China and the United States are both countries with huge carbon emission. At the same time, the amount of trade between them is large. But there is the carbon emission transfer by Sino-US merchandise trade due to the differences in the technology, infrastructure, energy efficiency and natural resources etc. The paper adopts the input-output approach, and combines the systems of economy, energy and trade to establish the carbon emission transfer model based on international merchandise trade. Then, it calculates the carbon emission transfer by Sino-US merchandise trade in 1997 and 2002. The conclusions are as follows： 1 ） In 1997 and 2002, the Chinese relative sectors＇ total carbon emission by Sino-US merchandise trade reached 40. 1013 million tons and 50. 5621 million tons, accounted for 6. 61% and 8.33 % of the Chinese relative sectors＇ total carbon emission. The United States relative sectors＇ total carbon emission by Sino-US merchandise trade reached 2. 9065 million tons and 3. 3561 million tons, only accounted for 0. 53% and 0. 66% of the United States relative sectors＇ total carbon emission. 2） In 1997 and 2002, the carbon emission transfer by Sino-US merchandise trade reached 37. 1975 million tons and 47. 1960 million tons. Specially, the contributions of chemical industry, metal smelling and pressing sector are prominent. 3） In 1997 and 2002, carbon emissions equivalent to 6. 77% and 9. 32% of the United States relative sectors＇ total carbon emission were transferred to China. China has made potential contribution to the carbon emission reduction of the United States. The developed countries like the United States should provide climate and environment friendly technology to developing countries like China.