摘要
选取了影响浙江省滑坡灾害发生的原始坡度、坡形、坡向、坡体的相对高度以及滑体的性质,这5个主要的地形因素作为研究分析变量,结合浙江省1970年以来1110个滑坡灾害个例进行统计分析,区分影响滑坡灾害发生的有效地形因素。根据地理分布特点和滑坡发生的频率,将浙江省滑坡灾害分布划成3大区域:易发区域、可能发生的区域和不易发生的区域。对每一个划分的区域,分别计算滑坡发生之日起21 d以内,滑坡地点邻近气象观测站的逐日降雨量,从而获得滑坡的有效降雨量,并计算该气象站的临界雨量,奠定分区预报的基本标准,并以此为基础初步规定了预警等级。最后对滑坡分区预报的可行性进行实例分析和检验。
Five major factors influencing the landslide disasters in Zhejiang Province area,including the gradient, shape, toward direction, relative height, and nature of the slopes,are selected as the variables for studying the 1,110 cases of the landslide events since 1970 statistically to distinguish available geographic factors form landslide disaster in this article. According to the geological distribution features and the occurrence frequency of the landslide events,the whole Zhejiang province area is divided into three major regions,the easy-to-form landslide area,the possibly-to-form landslide area and the not easy-to-form landslide area. For every area, we computed the daily rainfall of the meteorological observational station located near the landslide site during the 21 day period started from the occurrence day ,for obtaining the available rainfall and the critical rainfall of the landslide for the meteorological station to set the basic standard for making regionalizing forecasting of the landslide disaster, and we elementarily regulated the scale of the prediction on these base. Finally ,a real case analysis and exam of the regionalizing forecasting of the landslide disaster was made.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2009年第5期577-581,共5页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
东南地区强降水诱发地质灾害预警报技术研究
关键词
分区预报
滑坡
有效降雨量
临界雨量
regionalizing forecasting
landslide
available rainfall
critical rainfall