浙江省人口演变特征的R/S分析

The Trend of Population Development in Zhejiang Province Based on Fractal Theory

在对浙江省人口演变趋势进行描述性分析的基础上,利用分形理论的R/S分析方法,基于其人口总数、非农业人口、出生率、死亡率、自然增长率等数据,对人口发展演变的时间分形特征进行实证研究。结果显示,浙江省人口的变动在时间上具有显著的自相似性特征。本研究还依据人口变动时间上的自相似性特点,尝试性地对浙江省未来的人口发展态势进行预测。

This paper firstly analyzes the characteristic of population changing of Zhejiang province,then using non-liner Fractal Theory and R / S analysis,taking the data of total population,non-agricultural population,rate of birth,rate of death,rate of natural increasing of population,make a practical study on the trend of regional population.The results show that there is great self-similarity on time series of population changing.Meanwhile,according to the self-similarity,it also attempts to forecast the trend of future population.