中国不同区域化肥资源利用特征与合理配置

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE APPLICATION OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS AND THEIR RATIONAL ALLOCATION IN CHINA

本文把中国分成东部、中部和西部地区３个区域，根据１９８０—１９９５年的农业统计资料分析了不同区域化肥施用变化特征及其与粮食生产的关系。计算了在现有施肥技术水平和施肥条件下，不同区域的化肥边际产量，并估算了边际产量为０时全国化肥总需求量和可能达到的粮食产量，分别为４６４９×１０４ｔ和６２３７８×１０４ｔ。比较了不同区域施用化肥的增产效果，在此基础上讨论了在区域间进行化肥资源合理配置的实践意义。

This paper first examines fertilizer utilization in the three regions of China,namely,the 11 coastal provinces in the East,the 11 interior provinces in Central China,and the 8 remote border provinces in the West.Based on officaial statistical data covering 1980 to 1995,the characteristics of the application of chemical fertilizers in these regions are detailed,and the relationships between grain yield and the application of chemical fertilizer in different regions are also analysed.It then presents the ways for improving the efficiency of chemical fertilizers.The results are:1)For the whole country,the regression equation between the total amount of the chemical fertilizers,X,and per unit area grain yield,Y,is:Y=1 210.4+21.112X2-0.025X2 R2=0.712(1)In the equation,when X was 86.7 kg/hm^2 in 1980,the marginal grain yield was 16.8 kg,and when X was 239.8 kg/hm2 in 1995,the marginal grain yield was 9.1kg.When dy/dx=0,the total amount of fertilizers and potential grain yield are estimated as 0.46×10~8 t and 6.2×10~8 t.compared with total grain yield in 1995,the potential grain yield can be increased by 28 per cent.2)For the three regions,the regression equations between the total amount of chemical fertilizers,X,and per unit area grain yield,Y,are:Y=1 397.4+18.867X-0.0200X2 R2=0.616 for the East(2)Y=1 445.7+24.32X-0.0399X2 R2=0.708 for the Central(3)Y=659.2+29.914X-0.0969X2 R2=0.757 for the West(4)In equation(2),(3)and (4),the marginal grain yield was calculated.For the East Region,the marginal grain yield was 13.8kg when X was 126.4 kg/hm^2 in 1980,and it was 6.2 kg when X was 316.8 kg/hm^2 in 1995.For Central Region,the marginal garain yield was 21.45 kg when X was 72.8 kg/hm^2 in 1980,and it was 6.7 kg when X was 220.5 kg/hm^2 in 1995.For the West Region,the marginal grain yield was 19.9 kg when X was 51.8 kg/hm^2 in 1980,and it was -2.3 kg when X was 166.6 kg/hm^2 in 1995.From the above facts,it can be concluded that the efficiency of chemical fertilizers for increasing grain yield is different in the three regions,the highest is in the Central,and the lowest is in the West in 1995.