摘要
为了预防大停电事故的发生,必须在事故前建立可用于大停电预防控制的连锁故障分析模型。因此基于安全科学的事故链分析模型,提出基于网络潮流的事故链中间环节预测指标,用以在线构建电力系统事故链,从而形成网络事故链表,在此基础上可以定量分析电网连锁故障。该事故链生成方法以系统失稳为目标,指标的计算简单方便,可用于连锁故障的在线分析,可以为电网连锁故障的风险评估和预防控制提供有力支持,IEEE39节点系统的仿真验证了该指标的有效性。
Cascading failure should be modeled before accident in order to preventing large scale blackout. Based on the probability analysis model of fault chain of security science, the prediction index of middle segments of fault chain based on flow of network is presented to establish the fault chains, in which the cascading failure probability is quantified. The method is simple to compute and is ended by the system collapse. The results can be used not only for on-line analysis of cascading failure, but also for risk assessment and preventive control. The simulation on IEEE 39 buses system testifies the validation of the proposed method.
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第10期2446-2451,共6页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
国家电网公司科研项目(SGKJJSKF[2008]469)~~
关键词
大停电
连锁故障
事故链
中间环节
预测指标
预防控制
large scale blackout
cascading failure
fault chain
middle segments
prediction index
preventive control
