我国是否存在失业回滞效应?——基于第一、二代面板单位根检验的实证分析

Is There An ‘Unemployment Hysteresis’ Effect In China?——An Analysis based on First and Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests

就业是民生之本,然而自上世纪九十年代以来我国失业率逐年攀升,日益严峻的失业问题已引起政策当局和学术界的广泛关注与高度重视。有鉴于此,本文在第一代面板单位根检验的基础上,结合最新发展的第二代面板单位根检验方法,对我国是否存在失业回滞效应展开深入研究,进而为我国促进就业的政策选择提供重要的参考依据。研究结果表明,我国存在着显著的失业回滞效应,这就使得经济周期波动等外部冲击对我国失业产生永久性影响,从而在很大程度上造就了我国失业率逐年攀升、高居不下的局面,现阶段政府实施干预性的宏观调控政策显得十分必要。在此基础上,本文对降低乃至消除失业回滞效应、完善我国治理失业的宏观调控机制提出了若干政策建议。

Employment is vital to people＇s livelihood, however, since 1990s of last century China has experienced a substantial increase in the rate of unemployment and the serious unemployment problem has received much more attention from the policymaker and the academia. So based on the recent developments of second generation panel unit root tests, this paper tests the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for our country in order to provide reference for the authorities to choose and arrange their future policies to fight against unemployment. The results based on panel-based unit root tests indicates the hysteresis hypothesis is supported for our country, so the shocks such as business-cycle fluctuations will have permanent effects on the unemployment and it is necessary for government to implement macro-control policies to solve the unemployment problem. In addition, this paper put forward some suggestion to improve the macroeconomic regulation to control the unemployment rates.