FDI促进国内投资的最优规模——理论模型与中国实证

The Optimal Scale of FDI to Promote Domestic Investment:Theoretical Model and Evidence from China

本文首先构建了一个FDI影响国内投资的理论模型,说明存在一个最优的FDI规模,此时FDI对国内投资的促进作用最大。然后利用1985-2005年我国省区面板数据进行了实证检验。考虑到投资在不同地区之间的空间相关性,估计方法上采用最新提出的空间GM方法。结果发现:我国确实存在一个最优的FDI规模,约占GDP的6%;我国大部分省区的FDI小于这个最优规模,而FDI超过最优规模的省区主要集中在东部地区;从FDI对国内投资的长期效应来看,东部地区要低于中西部地区。

Whether FDI can promote domestic investment is vitally important for FDI policy-making. This paper first constructs a model to investigate how FDI affects domestic investment. An optimal FDI scale is found which generates the most active effects on domestic investment. Then the conclusion is tested empirically using provincial panel data of China. With the consideration of interactions among regions, spatial components are added into empirical equation, which is estimated by GMM method proposed recently. It is found that an optimal scale does exist, which is about 6 percent of GDP. Provinces above the optimal line are mainly located along the east coast, while most of them are below it. And FDI＇s long-run effects on domestic investment are smaller in the east than in the west and the middle.