基于麦克勒姆规则模型的中国货币政策检验

Test of Chinese Monetary Policy by Using McCallum Model

根据中国1995—2008年的季度GDP数据，对麦克勒姆模型进行扩展，用于检验中国的货币政策对经济的影响。分析显示，总的来说，中国的货币政策目前是遵循麦克勒姆规则的。研究结果表明，中国基础货币的调控对经济增长、汇率、外汇储备均反应显著。但通货膨胀的反应系数为负，这反映了中国自亚洲金融危机以来通货紧缩的基本事实。其中一些结果不同于现有的研究，对中国的货币政策具有参考意义。

With the GDP data in China from 1995 to 2008, McCallum model is expanded to test the effect of Chinese monetary policy on the economy of China. It shows that, in general, the Chinese monetary policy follows the McCallum rule. The results indicate that the control of basic money in China has significant effect on economic growth, exchange rate, and foreign currency reserves. It also reflects that China has been being in deflation since the Asian financial crisis, for the inflation rate is negative. Some of the re- sults are different from the existing studies and useful for the operation of monetary policy in China.