开放经济下我国货币政策目标的内在冲突性分析

An Analysis on the Inherent Conflict of China's Monetary Policy Goals in the Open Economy

货币政策的币值稳定目标在理论上具有对内物价稳定、对外汇率稳定的双重含义。文章通过理论模型和实证检验得出,我国币值稳定的货币政策目标无论是在固定汇率制度还是在有管理的浮动汇率制度下都存在显著的内在冲突性,指出我国人民币汇率将会出现盯住美元制的发展趋势,提出我国当前宏观经济调控政策不仅要注重货币政策和财政的合理搭配,更应该重视支出增减政策和支出转换政策的有效搭配的政策建议。

The currency value stability goals of China＇ s monetary policy have double meaning of the domestic price stability and foreign exchange rate stability in theory. By theoretical model and empirical test, this paper makes a conclusion that the currency value stability goals of China＇s monetary policy have an obvious inherent conflict both in the fixed exchange rate system and the managed floating exchange rate system. The paper states that the exchange rate system of RMB has the tendency to be pegged to USD system in the future, and puts forward policy advice that our current macroeconomic policy should not only pay attention to reasonable coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy but also pay much more attention to the coordination between expenditure-cbanging policy and expenditureswitching policy.