基于时间序列季节调整的家用空调出口分析

Export statistics analysis of air conditioners based on time series seasonal adjustment

家用空调出口量的数据序列中存在明显的季节效应,这会影响对家用空调出口整体趋势的分析及判断.针对这个问题,文章基于X-11模型对家用空调出口量的数据序列进行季节调整,消除其中的偶然因素,并利用SA S软件编程进行了实证分析.结果表明:2002年开始,我国空调出口量有非常显著的线性递增趋势,2008年下半年出现了明显的下滑,2009年初开始略有回升.

There exists apparent seasonal effect in the export statistics of air conditioners, which will mislead the analysis and judge of the developing trend of air conditioners＇export. Thus, we propose a model based on X-11 process to do seasonal adjustments and eliminate the stochastic factors of the export statistic of air conditioners, while Statistical Analysis System （SAS） is employed to do some related field studies. The results of the process show that the export of Chinese air conditioners has kept a linear increase since 2002, but obviously went down in the latter half of 2008, eventually it was recovering slightly at the beginning of 2009.