太阳活动百年尺度的跃变与气候跃变的相关分析

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND CLIMATIC JUMP IN CENTURY TIME SCALE

讨论了２５００多年来太阳黑子周期长度（ＳＣＬ）的跃变特征，发现在百年尺度上ＳＣＬ基本在平均值附近变化，而其变率则存在明显的跃变现象，当ＳＣＬ的变率增大时，气候随之发生冷跃变，反之，则发生暖跃变。小冰期时，太阳活动弱且不稳定，与地球气候冷且不稳定具有同时性。

In this paper, the jump transition characteristic of sunspot cycle length(henceforth SCL) from 522BC upward were analyzed. Moving t-test method based results indicate that there were no appreciable change of SCL in recent 2500 years. However, the variances of SCL series (henceforth S v) show apparent jump transitions in 260BC, 31AD, 271AD, 1172AD and 1844AD, respectively. When S v jump from low to high level, the “cold” climatic jumps were occurred, and vice versa. Moreover, the highest level of S v coincide with the frequently occurrence of natural disaster in the Little Ice Age, which indicates that the instability of climate was caused by the unstable SCL (solar activity).