近百年江苏中部和南部地区气温趋势及其变化率估计

ESTIMATION FOR TEMPERATURE TREND AND VARIABILITY DURING RECENT 100 ys.OVER MID-SOUTHERN REGION IN JIANGSU

本文探讨苏中和苏南地区气温长期变化趋势的阶段特征，着重研究各不同时期气温趋势的显著性和置信区间。结果表明，（I）近百年该区气温有显著的上升趋势，且与北半球总变化趋势基本一致；（Ⅱ）除冬季以外，本区经历了两次升温和两次降温时期，各不同阶段具有不同的趋势特征；（Ⅲ）近百年气温最高的十年，除了夏季出现在本世纪60年代外，其余各季及全年平均都出现在本世纪40年代，这一特点与北半球最暖的十年出现于80年代以后是有一定差异的。

The stage features of long-term trend for temperature change over mid -southern region in Jiangsu are researched in this paper- The significance and confidence inter-val of temperature trend during different stages are emphasized. The result shows that (l)there exists significant ascent trend of temperature during recent 1OO ys. over this region,which is basically coincident with total change trend over Northern Hemisphere; (2)exceptwinter, there are two ascent/descent tenlperature stages respectively and these differentstages possess different features in t:end; (3)the highest decade of temperature magnitudeduring recent l00 ys- over thi5 region occurs in l940's except summer season in which thehighest decade occurs in 196O's,and above -mentioned features differ from the most warmdecade over Northern Hemisphere where it occurs in recent 20 ys after l980's.