东北地区渍涝风险气象等级预报

Waterlogging Forecast in Northeast Area of China Base on DEM

为满足天气预报中对渍涝灾害预报的要求,利用东北地区1∶100万DEM基本地形数据,以G IS为平台分析研究区域的水流方向和汇流能力栅格,对SCS(Soil Conservation Service)-Curve Number径流预报模型进行本地化调试,应用降水量预报和汇流能力栅格,通过耦合得到实际地形的汇流量;将汇流量转化为径流深,根据径流深和渍涝等级对应关系发布渍涝风险气象等级预报,并在一次天气过程中进行试报,预报结果和实况比较吻合。

To meet the requirements of waterlogging in weather disaster forecast. Using 1 ： 1 000 000 scale DEM basic topographic data in the Northeast area of China, based on the platform of geographic information system （ GIS）, the direction of water flow and the grid of convergence capacity were analyzed. SCS hydrology model was debuged, runoff model and converge ability were coupled, the runoff on liaoning terrain was obtained. According to the parallelism between converge and waterlog grade, the waterlog risk meteorological grades were obtained. In flood seasons the waterlogging forecast was applied, the result showed that the forecast and actual condition are consistent.