外资进入中国银行业目标选择实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Choice of the Foreign Investors' Entrance into China's Banking Industry

文本文选取2001-2006年11家原股份制商业银行的相关指标,并引入年份虚拟变量,通过建立logit回归模型,研究了外资进入中国银行业时对目标银行选择的影响因素,从而进一步分析其动机和性质。研究发现,外资进入中国银行业的动机有三个:首要是逐利性,其次是安全性,同时受到宏观政策刺激的影响。而外资投资动机的主观性、变动性和其所处的非控制地位使得这些因素无法肯定体现其"战略投资者"的性质。最后,根据研究结论,本文针对中国银行业发展提出了相关政策建议。

This paper analyzes the motives and qualities of foreign investors which enter China＇s banking industry by researching the factors affecting their choice of the target bank. The approaches adopted mainly are the logic regression model based on the panel data of 11 former joint-stock commercial banks from 2001 to 2006 and pseudo-variables of the year. The conclusion is that there are three motives compelling the foreign investor：, the priority is profitability, and the next is security, and follows the stimulation of the macro policy. However, the subjectivity, variation of the motives and uncontrollable position of the foreign capital could not refect the quality of ＂Strategic Investors＂. Finally, relative policy adviees are proposed according to the conclusion.