发达国家取消棉花补贴对我国棉业经济的影响分析：基于空间性应用一般均衡模型

Impact analysis on China cotton economy from cotton subsidies cancellation by developed countries:Based on the spatial computable general equilibrium model

首先对发达国家取消棉花补贴因素模型化,然后通过构建发达国家取消棉花补贴对我国棉业经济产生影响的空间性应用一般均衡(SCGE)模型进行模拟分析.结果表明:发达国家取消棉花补贴对我国棉花价格、国内纺织品价格的影响不大,在一定程度上会促进棉农收入的增加和纺织品生产的增加,我国的棉花和纺织服装产品出口将会增加.

A factor for measuring cotton subsidy is firstly modeled in this research, then spatial computable general equilibrium （SCGE） model is constructed to study the influence to cotton industry of China when developed countries cancel their cotton subsidy. The data analyses show that there will be a little effect on cotton and spinning price, a positive influence on farmer＇s income and spinning products to some extent, and a big increase in the exports of cotton and spinning products when cotton export subsidy is cancelled.