贵州旅游市场发展态势及预测模型研究

Situation Analysis and Prediction Study of Inbound Tourist Market Development of Guizhou Province

通过对贵州入境旅游市场数据资料的分析得出:贵州省入境旅游人数保持良好的增长态势,但与旅游发达省份还有较大的差距;客源市场空间结构相对集中在亚洲,且结构趋于优化,外汇收入结构也逐渐优化,但其创汇能力低于全国水平,且呈现下降趋势;构建了贵州省入境客源人数的预测模型为Y=9.77+1.08X+0.006X3,并作出定量预测。

According to the data and material of inDound tourism market in Guizhou province, in this paper it is proved that the tourist number is in the good situation of increasing, however, there is still large gap compared with other provinces. The spatial structure of tourist market, correspondingly centralized in the Asia, is tending to be optimal and the structure of exchange earnings is also gradually be optimal, but the capacity to earn foreign exchange is lower than that of national level and is showing a downward trend. At last it is constructed a prediction model Y = 9.77 ＋ 1.08X ＋ 0. 006X3 of inbound tourist number in Guizhou and give the quantitative prediction.