建筑节能技术的风险模糊评价模型

Fuzzy appraisal model of energy conservation technology risk

目的为了科学合理地进行建筑节能技术项目分析和选择,对其风险规律进行研究。方法引入模糊集合理论的模糊综合评判方法,进行建筑节能技术风险的系统评价。结果根据建筑节能技术风险层次关系,形成风险体系集合;在评价前提下,构建了节能技术一级风险因素评价模型和风险体系综合评价模型;从最大隶属度、加权平均和模糊分布的角度,综合得出评价结果。结论通过模型应用研究,表明建筑节能技术风险评价模型具有系统评价风险的合理性和真实反映风险程度的实用性。

Aim In order to analyze and choose the project of energy conservation technology （CECT） discnss the law of CECT risk. Methods By applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the appraisal system of CECT risk is put forward. Results According to the hierarchy of CECT risks, the risks system is performed. With the premiss of appraisal, the first-grade risks appraisal model and the risks system appraisal model are developed. Relying on the maximum degree of membership, the weighted-average and the fuzzy distribution, the comprehensive conclusion of appraisal is put forward. Conclusion The rationality and practicability of this model are shown with a case study, which can appraise the risk systematically and reflect the degree of risk factually.