中国粮食生产发展的时序变化研究

A STUDY ON THE TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CHINA'S GRAIN PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT

文章对我国粮食生产发展的时序变化进行了全面系统的研究。剖析了“阶段论”、“台阶论”等粮食生产发展研究的常用方法，提出和论述了“渐变论”的观点和方法，建立了“综合增产率”计算模型。然后，应用“渐变论”对１９４９年～１９９５年中国粮食总产量进行了定量研究，从粮食总产变化趋势和变化驱动力两方面，深入地分析了粮食总产的时序特征。最后，应用两种方法对粮食总产进行了动态预测，预测２０００年我国粮食总产可突破５００００×１０４ｔ。

The temporal variation of China's grain production development is studied comprehensively and systematically in this paper. First, the research method about temporal variation of China's grain production development is discussed. After analyzing the common method such as “stage method” and “step method”, the author proposed a new opinion and a method named as “gradual variation method”, and worked out a new formula to calculate “comprehensive variation ratio”. Second, taking the statistic data of historical national annual total grain production (from 1949 to 1995) as source data, the author analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production development by using the author's research method. Three temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production are as follows: (1) The increase tendency of China's total grain production is very obvious; (2) The average increase ratio of China's total grain production is nearly 3%; (3) The trend of China's total grain production increase ratio is reducing. Third, the temporal variation mechanism of China's total grain production is researched by using relative analyses method and gray interrelation analyses method. The analyses result is that the first direct driving force of China's total grain production development is grain crop yield, and the second is grain crop sown area. Finally, the tendency of China's grain production development is studied and predicted by comprehensive dynamic prediction method and equal dimensional GM(1,1) dynamic prediction method. Three prediction schemes are obtained by each prediction method, and the final prediction result is that China's total grain production will be more than 500 million ton by the year 2000.