广东省逐年初台登陆时间的变化特点

THE SECULAR VARIATION OF THE TIME OF THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDING ON GUANGDONG PROVINCE

通过对广东省初台登陆时间资料的分析，发现其具有周期变化的特点。根据循环阶段（周期）的划分，比较满意地解释了近3年广东省初台登陆时间明显偏迟的原因。

An analysis is made on the the series of of the first tropical cyclone landing on Guangdog Province during the pened of from 1929 to 1997, and the Series is divided into six periods. The results indicate that the the Series has a periodic feature. In each cyclical period the landing the of the first cyclone varied in such an order: obviously late, obviously early, and then obviously late again. A significant cycle is obtained for the the Series by using the maximal entropy spectral estimation method and it is basically equal to the average length of the above - mentioned cyclical perieds, that is about 13 years. The feature of cyclical variation can be used to make a better explanation of the Phenomena that the landing times of the first tropical cyclones on. Guangdong in last three years were obviously late.