基于资源承载力的区域可持续发展评价模式探讨──对珠江三角洲经济区可持续发展的初步评价

AN ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE CARRYING CAPACTTY OF RESOURCES ──A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone

讨论区域可持续发展评价的现状，将资源的概念广义化，把资源划分成为自然资源、经济资源和社会资源三类，将自然、社会、经济三个子系统的作用量化为三类资源的人口承载能力，一个地区各类资源承载能力之和与当年实际人口数量之比可以作为区域可持续发展年度评价指标。根据1996年的统计数据，应用这一模式对珠三角经济区9个城市评价的结果，表明其仍处在可持续发展轨道上，它们的可持续发展能力大小依次是：广州、惠州、肇庆、深圳、珠海、佛山、中山、江门和东莞。

The present situation of the assessment of sustainability for regional development is discussed. It is considered that the concept of resource should be generalized and the resources in a broad sense-could be classified into three types: natural resource, economic resource and social resource. Hence the function of the natural, economic and social subsystems in a ragion can be quantitatively measured by the carrying capacity of each type of resources . The ratio between the sum of carrying capacity of the resources and the amount of population of the region in a certain year can be defined as an annual measuring index of sustainability for regional development. This definition is applied to assess 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The calculated indices of sustainability from the sadistics of 1996 indicate that all the 9 cities are still on the sustainable orbit, and the older of sustainability is: Guangzhou, Huizhou, Zhaoqing,Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Dongguan.