背景流场对台风风暴潮数值预报的影响研究

Influence of steady uniform currents on the simulation of storm surges

选取了3个穿过台湾海峡的台风引起的台风风暴潮为算例,分别用SODA月平均流速资料做垂向平均后构建了台湾周边海域的大尺度背景环流场,利用国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的台风风暴潮模式对经过该海域的台风个例进行风暴潮数值模拟。将结果与验潮站潮位实测资料进行对比发现,在加入了背景流场后,能更好地模拟整个风暴潮过程,模拟结果更接近真实值,特别是对于原模式风暴增水峰值容易偏大的问题得到了改善,而且整体相对误差更小,提高了风暴潮模式的业务稳定性。

In this paper, the SODA monthly mean data averaged vertically are used to construct the large-scale steady uniform circulating currents around Taiwan sea area. Added with the steady uniform circulating currents, the storm surge model which has been operated by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center simulates the storm surge initiated by three typhoons we select. By contrast with the results generated by the original model and the data collected from the tide station, it is found that the model with the steady uniform circulating currents can simulate the whole process better. As the simulation results have been improved in a certain extent and relative errors has been reduced as a whole, the model operates more stably.