福州市入境旅游发展及其影响因子的灰色关联分析

Inbound tourism development and grey correlative analysis on its affecting factors in Fuzhou City

对历年有关统计数据的定量分析表明,福州市的入境旅游发展呈现波动性增长形式,入境游客的客源结构在历史上曾发生极大演变,表现为从初期的以亚洲周边国家游客为主,转变为目前以美洲游客为主。聚类分析表明,福州市入境外国游客的客源分类极为单调,游客来源主要依赖美国游客。灰色关联分析显示,国民经济快速增长、社会文明程度高和旅游交通的迅速发展对福州市入境旅游的发展具有较大贡献,相比之下,旅游服务、生态环境保护和旅游宣传工作相对薄弱,今后应注意加强。

The analysis of developing trend of inbound tourism and its affecting factors is one of the important contents in the study of regional tourism development. The quantitative analysis of statistical data available in various official yearbooks indicates that the development of inbound tourism in Fuzhou City has foUowed a fluctuating growth pattern. The structure of inbound tourist origins in Fuzhou City has experienced evident variations in the history, the major foreign tourist arrivals changed from the citizens of Asian neighboring countries originally to the American citizens recently. The cluster analysis suggests that the classification of foreign tourist origins is relatively simple and the foreign tourist arrivals depend mainly on US tourists at present. The grey correlative analysis shows that the rapid growth of national economy, high-level social civilization, as well as the rapid development of tourist traffic would have made great contributions to the inbound tourism development in Fuzhou City. Nevertheless, less progress had been made concerning the tourist service, eco-environment protection and tourist propaganda, which therefore need to be strengthened in the future.