基于谱分析的综合运输需求周期波动研究

Research of Comprehensive Transportation Demands Periodic Fluctuation Based on Spectrum Theory

研究综合运输需求的周期波动性特征,了解运输需求增长的轨迹,能为宏观运输政策的制定提供有力的依据.为了分析综合运输需求的周期波动性特征,参照我国1953年至2006年的综合运输需求发展变化数据,通过给出客运需求周期波动指标,货运需求周期波动指标和综合运输需求周期波动指标,并运用时间序列的频域分析(简称谱分析)理论中的图基-汉宁窗谱估计法,对此期间的客货运输需求的变化进行了分析.数据分析的结果表明,在我国综合运输需求发展过程中存在周期约为6到8年为主的中周期波动,并且围绕3年左右还存在一个作用相对较弱的短周期波动,综合运输需求周期波动性特征明显.

Studying the periodic fluctuation and the growth of comprehensive transportation demand can provide strong supports for the formulation of macro-transportation policy. Referring to the comprehensive de- mand data from 1953 to 2006 of China, the paper proposes the indicators of periodic fluctuations on passen- ger transportation demand, freight transportation demand, and comprehensive transportation demand. The growths of passenger and freight transportation demands are also analyzed by Tukey-Hanning spectrum. The results indicate that a 6 -8 year medium periodic fluctuation and a 3-year short periodic fluctuation exit in the development of China＇ s transportation demand. The fluctuation of comprehensive transportation demand is demonstrated to be obvious.