面向决策过程的动态路径选择模型

Process-Oriented Dynamic Route Choice Model

针对已有路径选择模型缺乏选择决策过程的问题,给出基于决策场理论的车辆路径选择过程框架,建立面向过程的车辆动态路径选择模型.该模型综合考虑驾驶员心理、路况、决策时间等各种不确定性因素的交互影响,将行程时间、行驶距离和行驶路线所经交叉口数量作为驾驶员路径选择的主要标准,使模型更接近实际的决策过程.通过模型仿真,分析了路况交通信息和时间压力对驾驶员选择决策过程的影响.分析结果表明:不完全交通信息会导致"确定性效应",不能对驾驶员进行有效的引导;驾驶员的路径选择决策过程不仅取决于驾驶员的自身因素和路况,还与时间压力有关,时间压力会降低决策质量,导致偏好逆反现象.

The deliberation process is rarely considered in conventional route choice models. In this paper, the decision field theory （DFT） is used as the theoretical basis to develop a framework and to model the process-oriented vehicle dynamic route choice. The interactions of driver psychology, road conditions, and decision-making time are taken into account, and the travel time, distance, as well as the number of intersections are set as the main attributes in the model. In this way, the model is closer to the actual decision-making process. The model simulation results show that incomplete traffic information leads to ＂certainty effect＂, and cannot guide the driver effectively. The driv- ers＇ route choice decisions and processes depend on the drivers＇ characteristics, uncertainty of road conditions, as well as the time pressure which reduces quality of decision-making and cause ＂reversal phenomenon＂.