基于SPSS的短期负荷特性分析及其预测研究

Application of SPSS in characteristic of short load and its forecasting

为了提高一个地区短期负荷预测的精度,对该地区的负荷进行特性分析是十分必要的。而在分析的过程中则需要处理和分析大量的数据,SPSS正是一款在数据处理和分析方面有着强大功能的易用软件。将SPSS软件的应用引入到电力系统中,主要从主成分分析、聚类分析和多元回归分析3个方面,阐述SPSS在电力系统负荷特性分析中的应用;从时间ARIMA模型分析中说明SPSS在预测方面的应用。通过一些示例说明SPSS的具体应用,从而显示它的重要功能:可以更清楚地了解负荷数据间的内在联系、变化规律和影响短期负荷特性,对提高负荷预测的水平具有重要的意义。

In order to improve the short load forecasting accuracy in the region, it is very necessary to analyze the characteristic of the load in the same area. A large amount of data is needed to process and analyze in the analysis of the characteristic of the load. SPSS is such a easy-used software which is very powerful in data processing and analysis. In this paper, SPSS software is applied in power system, and the application of SPSS software in power system load characteristic analysis is introduced from the principal component analysis, cluster analysis and multiple regression analysis. And the application of SPSS in load forecasting is introduced from the analysis of ARIMA time model. A number of examples are used to illustrate the specific application of SPSS, from which its important function is shown： it can more clearly explain the internal relations and the law of change of the load data, affect the short load characteristic and play a very important part in promoting the level of the load forecasting.