新视角透析中国区域经济收敛性

Analysis on Chinese Regional Economic Convergence through New Perspective

本文利用H-P滤波对我国各省份实际GDP序列进行趋势分解,以消除经济周期效应的影响,得到各省份实际GDP的长期趋势序列。使用各省份实际GDP长期趋势序列占全部省份实际GDP长期趋势序列之和的比例作为一个可以比较各个地区差异的标准化指标;并将标准化指标对时间求导,整理得出标准化指标增长率,再次对这一指标增长率进行修正,进而用于分析中国经济区域收敛性的特征。结论表明:虽然我国部分地区之间的差距还在不断变大,但自1992年以来这种差距的变化速度在逐年减小,具有收敛的趋势。

In order to eliminate the effects of economic cycle and get the actual GDP series with long-term trend, this paper uses the H P filte ring approach to trend decomposition of GDP series according to each province, To analyze the characteristics of regional convergence, it uses the proportion of each province＇s actual GDP series divided by the sum of all as a standard indicator, and then calculates the derivative of the standard indicator to get the growth rate of it. To serve the research, it updates the growth rate. which can show regional difference. The conclusion is that, even though the regional difference is changing larger, the speed of the changing rate is slowing down. Actually, there is a trend of convergence since 1992.