收入增长、环境政策、环境有益技术与排污强度的链式关系

On the Chain-shaped Relationship among Income Growth, Environmental Policy, Environmental Technique and Pollution Intensity

收入增长、环境政策、环境有益技术与排污强度之间存在环环传导的因果关系,但实证研究中若以人均收入变量的系数来度量技术效应会高估真实技术效应,低估不利环境总效应,使结论出现偏差。环境政策对收入变化作出响应有1年滞后期,有4年适应期;环境有益技术对环境政策变化作出响应也有1年滞后期,但受影响时间较长;环境有益技术进步可迅速降低排污强度,但抑制作用持续年限较短。

There exists the chain-shaped logic relationship among income growth, environmental policy, environment-friendly technique and pollution intensity. The causal relationship of pushing one by one is reasonable. However, if the coefficient of income per capita in empirical research was used to measure technique effects, the real technique effects would be overestimated , and then harmful overall environmental effects would be underevaluated as well as with a final biased conclusion. The environmental policy response to income change with one-year lagged period, four-year adapting period; environment-friendly technique also response to policy change with one-year lagged period, but being affected for a long time; the improvement of environment-friendly technique may deerease pollution intensity rapidly, but its positive function only last a short time.