中国货币政策阶段性效应的实证分析

Analysis on the Phased Effects of Monetary Policy in China

将中国的货币政策实践分为两个阶段,利用SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解方法对两阶段的货币政策效果分别进行研究,结果发现:在以直接调控方式为主的第一阶段,中国货币政策充分发挥了其经济调控效应,但同时也带来了较大的经济波动;而在以间接调控方式为主的第二阶段,中国货币政策调控作用有限,但经济波动却比第一阶段小得多。因此,中国应在坚持间接调控方式的基础上,积极完善货币政策调控体系,以实现经济的平稳快速发展。

By dividing the practice of monetary policy into two period and researches the effects of monetary policy separately with the advanced SVAR model, impulse-response function and the method of variance decomposed, the result shows at the first stage relying mainly on direct adjustments, the monetary policy of our country controlled the economy well, but it brings great economic fluctuation at the same time; at the second stage relying mainly on indirect adjustments, the effects of monetary policy of our country is limited, but the economic fluctuation is less than in the first stage. So in order to realize the steady and fast development of economy, our country should perfect the adjustment system of monetary policy on the basis of adhering to the indirect adjustment.