摘要
在油气田开发中,产量、累积产量和可采储量的预测始终是油气藏工程师的一项重要任务。它直接关系到油气田中长期开发方案的编制与调整。通过对Usher模型微分方程式的分析,指出目前用于油气田产量预测的Logistic模型和Gompertz模型是Usher模型的两种简化形式;首次推导了Usher模型用于油气田产量、累积产量、可采储量和最高年产量及其发生时间的预测数学模型;讨论了3个模型在实际应用中的变化特征;阐述了Usher模型参数的计算方法,并在具体实例中加以应用。实践结果表明,Usher模型比Logistic模型和Gompertz模型具有同等或更高的预测精度。
The forecast of the production,cumulative production and recoverable reserves is an important task of reservoir engineering in oil and gas field development from beginning to end,being directly related to the compilation and adjustment of oil and gas field medium and long term development projects.Through analyzing the differential equations of Usher Model,it is pointed out that the Logistic Model and Gompertz Model used for production forecast of oil and gas fields at present are the two simplified patterns;in light of the Usher Model,the mathematical models for predicting the production,cumulative production,recoverable reserves and maximum yearly production and its appearing time of oil and gas fields are derived;the variable characteristics of the three models in practical application are discussed; and the calculation methods of the parameters in Usher Model are expounded and they are applied to the calculation for some examples.The practical results show that in comparsion with the Logistic Model and Gompertz Model,the Usher Model is of an identical or higher forecast accuracy.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第4期69-73,共5页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
油气田开发
Usher模型
产量预测
Production,Total production,Recoverable reserve,Production forecast,Mathematical model.