关于我国统计指标消除季节因素影响方法的探讨

The Method to Reduce the Influence of Traditional Chinese Calendar

从方法论上说,我国统计指标的季节调整问题关键在于公历数据的农历化,唯有如此才能消除农历的季节因素影响,舍此并无其他与经济发达国家不同的地方,至于对消除了农历的季节因素影响后的数据的处理,尽可采取诸如X12之类的方法程序。但无论是数据的农历化过程还是消除农历季节因素影响的过程,都有若干方法可以选择,笔者认为趋势分摊法的数据农历化过程配以固定季节因子法消除农历季节因素的方案是最合适的。

The key to adjust indicators of our country seasonally lies in the transformation from Gregorian calendar to traditional Chinese calendar. There is nothing else different from other developed countries. As to the data seasonally adjusted with traditional Chinese calendar, X-12 can be used for the following process. There are several methods to reduce the influence of traditional Chinese calendar. This paper proposes to apportion the tendency in data and to fix the seasonal factors in order to reduce the influence of traditional Chinese calendar.