中国金融发展与经济增长阈效应研究--来自中国各省市平行数据的经验证据

Financial Development and Economic Growth:Threshold Effects in China

本文采用Hansen(1999)平行数据阈效应模型的检验与估计方法,利用改革开放以来中国28个省份的数据,对中国金融发展与经济增长之间关系存在阈值点以及阈值点进行估计与检验。实证结果表明,经济发展水平是影响金融发展与经济增长关系的一个重要的阈变量。在经济发展水平高的地区,金融发展促进了经济增长;在经济发展水平低的地区,金融发展阻碍了经济增长;在经济发展水平中等的地区,金融发展不能用来解释经济增长。研究还表明,通货膨胀率和开放程度在金融发展与经济增长的阈效应并不明显。

Researches have supported the non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth. We propose that this relationship may vary according to the level of economic development. With a panel of 28 provinces in China from 1978 to 2003, using the threshold regression method （Hansen, 1999）, our empirical results support the non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth. In regions with very low levels of economic development, financial development hampers the economic growth; in regions with mediocre levels, financial development proves not to be the explanatory variable for economic growth; in regions with high levels, financial development has a large, positive effect on growth.