我国产出缺口与货币政策效应

The Output Gap and Monetary Policy Effect in China

本文对我国自1984年以来的产出缺口变动轨迹进行了研究,并以此为基础重点探讨了我国货币政策的产出效应,在研究方法上主要应用了向量自回归VAR系统。研究结果表明,我国产出缺口的主要决定因素是实体经济本身,货币因素对产出缺口的影响相对较小,并且具有明显时滞效应。所以在当前的保增长政策措施中,坚持财政刺激政策为主、货币扩张为辅的原则是正确的,但政策当局应尽早制定经济刺激政策的退出机制,从而最大化降低刺激政策的负作用。

The article adopts VAR system to study the change of output gap since 1984, and furthermore the output effect of monetary policy. The result indicates that the main determinant of output gap is real economy, not money. Current policy is wise in terms of stimulatory fiscal policy and expanding monetary policy. Yet an exit mechanism for economic policies needs to be set up.