人民币汇率变动和汇率市场化改革

The Movement and Liberalization Reform of RMB Exchange Rate

本文主要研究人民币汇率变动和汇率市场化改革,包括人民币对美元汇率的变动、人民币对非美元货币汇率的变动、人民币有效汇率波动和汇率的市场化改革。本文首先比较了人民币升值、贬值和维稳的影响,指出在国际金融危机时期,人民币应该保持相对稳定。同时本文从三角套汇的角度分析了人民币对美元和人民币对非美元货币汇率之间的关系,考察人民币对国际主要非美元货币汇率和人民币有效汇率的变动特点。最后本文考察人民币汇率形成机制改革和完善,提出了建立参考"一篮子"货币汇率制度和我国汇率市场化改革的具体措施。

RMB Exchange rate is always the focus of government and market. The paper primarily studies the movement and the liberalization reform of RMB exchange rate, including the movement of RMB against US Dollar and against non-US Dollar, effective RMB exchange rate and the liberalization reform. The paper concludes RMB exchange rate against US Dollar should be kept stable during the financial crisis. Meanwhile, the paper analyzes the relationship of RMB exchange rate against US Dollar and non-US Dollar from the view of triangular arbitrage, and explores the features of RMB movement against main non-Dollar currencies and of effective RMB exchange rate. Finally the paper examines the reform and perfection of RMB exchange rate forming mechanism, and puts forward specific measures of establishing RMB exchange rate regime.