工业生产函数法用于城市工业用水量预测的研究

Application of industrial production function method to prediction of urban industry water consumption

为解决城市工业用水量预测过程中简易方法预测精度不好的问题,基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和多层递阶预测时变参数方法,以城市工业用水量、城市工业总产值及工业水价为依据,建立新的工业生产函数法对城市工业用水量进行预测.结果表明,该方法原理简单,且预测精度较高,平均相对误差低于6%.

In order to solve the problem that the predicting accuracy of simple method is not precise in the prediction process of urban industry water consumption, a new method of industrial production function for the urban water industry forecast is estallished based on Cobb-Douglas production function and the method of multi- layer hierarchical forecast time-varying parameters, in accordance with urban industry water consumption, urban industrial GDP and the price of industrial water. The result shows that the method is simple and precise, and the average relative error is less than 6%.