我国外汇储备对名义产出与物价水平的动态影响研究——货币渠道的证据

On the Dynamic Impacts of Foreign Reserves on China's Nominal Output and Price Index——Using Currency Circulation as Evidence

外汇储备通过货币渠道影响国内宏观经济。本文运用结构VAR方法研究外汇储备对我国名义产出及物价水平的动态影响。结论表明：1．外汇储备冲击至少在最初的2个季度对名义产出造成扩张效应，之后给名义产出带来紧缩效应；2．外汇储备冲击对CPI的影响具有1个季度的时滞，在冲击发生初期对CPI产生推动作用，并持续4～5个季度，之后给CPI带来下行压力；3．从程度及持续性来看，外汇储备冲击对物价影响高于对名义产出的影响。研究结论为在金融危机背景下增强适度宽松货币政策的前瞻性提供支持。

This paper exploits the Structure VAR model and quarterly data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2008 to examine how China＇s foreign reserves impact nominal output and price index through currency circulation. The findings are： 1）China＇s foreign reserves had an expansion effect on nominal output in the first two quarters, but later exerted a contractionary effect on it; 2）It took a quarter before the foreign reserves could exert any impact on CPI. They first pushed CPI up for 4 or 5 quarters, but then pushed it down after that; 3）In terms of degree and continuity, the impact of foreign reserves on price index is larger than on nominal output. These findings support the adoption of a relatively loose monetary policy when facing a financial crisis.