水环境健康风险模糊评价模式研究

Study on Fuzzy Model for Water Environmental Health Risk Assessment

从风险评价系统的模糊性、不精确性出发,运用三角模糊数基本原理描述和表征水环境健康风险.在将常规的确定性模型参数定义为三角模糊参数的基础上,建立了水环境健康风险模糊评价模式.根据该模式,可以计算得到以三角模糊数表示的水环境健康风险程度.作为案例,将该模式应用于淮河干流安徽段某水域的环境健康风险评价,得到总的基因毒物质、躯体毒物质健康风险水平分别为(2.701×10-5,7.760×10-5,20.185×10-5)a-1,(0.463×10-8,1.425×10-8,4.147×10-8)a-1.实例研究表明:相对于传统确定性模型,所建模糊评价模式能够更好地刻画研究区域水环境健康风险状态.

Based on the vagueness and imprecision of assessment system of water environmental health risk, the triangular fuzzy number theory was utilized to denote the health risk. On the basis of defining the parameters in traditional certain models as triangular fuzzy numbers, uncertain models with triangular fuzzy parameters were established. According to these fuzzy models, the membership functions of risk can be obtained directly. As a case, these new models were used to assess the environmental health risk of a certain water area of Anhui province in Huaihe River. Its total risks, corresponding to gene and non-gene toxic substances, were equal to （2. 701 × 10^-5, 7. 760 × 10^-5, 20. 185× 10^-5） a^-1 and （0. 463× 10^-8,1. 425× 10^-8,4. 147× 10^-8） a^-1, respectively. Study result shows that the fuzzy models more scientifically reveal the health risk state of a studied water environment than the traditional ones.