基于模糊逻辑的故障树分析

Fault Tree Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic

在传统的ＦＴＡ（故障树分析）中，要确切地知道每一个元件的失效概率，但对许多系统而言，由于主客观因素的变化，很难从过去发生的事件中估算出元件的失效概率，为此，将模糊集合的概念引入ＦＴＡ，在这种方法中，系统失效的最大可能性是按照扩展原理由系统中每一个元件失效的可能性决定的，为了方便计算系统失效可能性，采用了一些合理的近似值并给出了它们的比较。

It should exactly be known all component failure probabilities in traditional fault tree analysis (FTA), but for many systems, it is hard to emulate all component failure probabilities from the events that have happened because of subjective and objective factors changes. So the fuzzy set is introduced to FTA, and the maximum probability of system failure is based on the probability of every component failure in system using expand theory. For calculating convenience, some approximation and comparison are given.