财政分权与经济周期波动研究:基于AS-AD的视角

The Study of Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Fluctuation:Based on the Perspective of AS-AD

文章基于AS-AD的分析框架,利用Blanchard-Quah的SVAR分解方式,研究分析了财政分权对经济周期波动的影响。由于公共投资的挤出效应以及资本效率部门间的差异,财政分权在带来需求冲击增加的同时,也带来了负向的供给冲击效应,二者共同的作用使得:(1)经济运行中表现出"价格与产出正向关联";(2)经济波动表现出"收—放"循环的特征,即分权导致产出增加、物价上涨,限制经济过热则导致产出与物价的下降;(3)分权促进经济增长并非源于分权增加社会供给能力,而是源于分权增加了社会需求水平。根据1952—2007年的数据,文章检验了上述推论,并指出频繁调整的中央与地方财政关系是经济波动"大起大落"的重要因素。

Based on the AS-AD framework and Blanchard-Quah＇ s SVAR decomposition, the paper analyses the effect of fiscal decentralization on economic fluctuation. Because of the crowding-out effect of public investment and the capital efficiency difference among sectors, fiscal decentralization not only causes the positive effect of demand shock, but also the negative effect of supply shock. The results of the shock effects are as follows： firstly, price is positively correlated with output; secondly, economic fluctuation is featured by the cycle of economic booms and slumps,namely, decentralization leads to the increase of output and price, and restrictions on the overheated economy leads to the decrease of output and price; thirdly, decentralization can promote economic growth, which is due to the increase of social demand, not the increase of social supply. On the basis of the annual data from 1952 to 2007, the paper tests the inferences above and also points out that frequent adjustment to the fiscal relationship between the central government and local governments is the key reason for economic fluctuation.