灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在农村居民人均纯收入预测中的应用

Application of Grey Metabolic GM(1,1) Model in Prediction of per Capita Net Income of Rural Residents

研究了基于灰色系统理论的农村居民人均纯收入的预测方法.建立不同维的常规GM(1,1)模型群,根据不同维预测模型的模拟相对误差,优选出基础GM(1,1)模型并建立灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对陕西省农村居民人均纯收入进行了预测.该方法能够有效融合新信息,弥补常规GM(1,1)模型的不足,实例计算表明该模型预测结果比较准确.

A prediction method of per capita net income of rural residents based on grey theory is studied. In this paper an ordinary GM （ 1,1 ） model group with different dimension is established and the simulating rela- tive errors are calculated in order to choose the optimal basic GM （ 1,1 ） model. Based on this a grey renewal GM （ 1,1 ） predicting model is constructed to forecast per capita net income of rural residents in Shaanxi prov- ince. This forecasting method could effectively integrate new information and make up for the shortage of ordi- nary GM （ 1,1 ） model. The computational results of example show that the forecasting result of grey renewal GM （ 1,1 ） model is accurate comparatively.